The more things change, the more they stay the same

As I embark on a new personal chapter, I stepped back and noticed something. The newest of new things (say, commerce media networks) look an awful like the oldest of things (say, Google).

It always starts with a great idea - a great place to buy things, a great place to find things. People find these places, they fall in love with that experience, they become loyal customers and provide revenue. But being profit-seeking enterprises, companies never stop there. They always ask, what's next. We've got all these "eyeballs" - how else can we leverage them. And the common answer is advertising. Rent those eyeballs to other companies, who might find them as valuable as you do and pay for that access. It begins with the companies you already know (endemic advertisers) and in the places they know you best (your own media). But it quickly moves to new companies (non-endemic) and other contexts (other media). The journey was started 20+ years ago by stalwarts like Google, Yahoo, AOL, and is now being taken up by a new vanguard like Amazon, Walmart, Uber, Instacart, Netflix. 

Context always matters. The new players in this old game have unique relationships with consumers which means unique data and media opportunities. The individual dynamics matter - the playing board changes shape, creating new opportunities and new angles. Ultimately success will be driven by these details - those that understand their context, see the shape of the board best, and execute ruthlessly will extract the most rents. 

However, the context is also confusing and distracting. Companies know themselves well - their own story, their consumers - but they don't know what they don't know, this new thing called advertising. They are of course all special snowflakes, but they come from the same cloud and storm system. Which is a lot like the prior storms in past seasons. There are certain immutable "laws" to how they shape, they fall, they accumulate. These laws can be observed and understood from the previous storms. The details of that snowflake are hugely important, but they operate within bounds and act so much like snowflakes before. 

History tells you so much about the Future. The Present informs the Future as well. So as we all embark down our own  new chapters, it's nice to keep an eye on both the Past and the Present as we map out the road to the future!