The technology that will change the world (again ...)

We've all heard the story - AI is coming for you and your business and your industry. And it's true - artificial intelligence is a technology storm that will sweep through every industry and change so many ways we do things today. But what is lost in all the hype is that we don't know when, where, or even how that change will manifest. 

Let's start with a trip down memory lane. AI is a revolutionary piece of technology that is most akin to the internet in potential impact. That's because the technology itself is so malleable, adaptable, unpredictable. I first started working in 1996, at the dawn of the internet. I also happened to be living in San Francisco, the epicenter of dot-com madness. It literally felt like every industry was ripping being ripped apart. There were frivolous efforts (eToys!); there were the seriously inspired (Google, hello); there were good ideas just before their time (Pets.com, Kosmo.com and Webvan, anyone?). Many of the initial successes (I loved AltaVista for search as did many others) are simply gravestones today. But no one that tried was truly "wrong". They just misplayed the moment - they arrived too early, they tried to do too much, they tried to do too little, they didn't continue to innovate at the pace of the market. 

I have a deep affection personally and professionally for the media business, particularly the news. I've always loved learning about the world, and the news (whether Dan Rather on the CBS Evening News, or the NYTimes daily paper, or the latest Substack) is my gateway to the amazing and profound of the world. I also worked in news - at Tribune and at the LA Times. I never actually created news content, but I did my best to make money so we could keep it going. And for decades these news media companies were enormously successful and influential. Just go look at the majestic Tribune Tower in Chicago to understand how much they mattered. The news industry did not ignore the internet - they digitized very early, they built JVs like Cars.com and Apartments.com that thrived. They attracted amazing talent (if I don't say myself) and played the game wonderfully for years. But ultimately their pace of innovation just couldn't keep up, plus the internet simply eroded their financials inexorably, evaporating the profit that would fuel any sustained innovation anyway. I'm not sure if they were "doomed", but I'm not sure if they weren't. 

As I look at AI's impact on companies today, I know that there will be winners and losers. I know that some will be caught flat-footed; others will be eager to figure it out but lack the proper roadmap and resources; and a handful will meet the moment. It's far too complex a situation to simply predict. AI itself couldn't predict what AI will do. But we can look at the lessons from the past and apply them. 

Some simple things are clear: (a) experiment now (start with simple options like cost takeouts and efficiencies, (b) commit to long term innovation (and take a deep hard stab at how you could completely change your business approach), (c) find people that are passionate about this moment (rent them early, buy the best forever), and (d) buckle up! This time will be something you tell your grandkids about (if they are business geeks)!